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I’ve opened dozens of cases with little to show for it, and now I’m wondering if there’s actual data on what the drop rates are. Are there any official or trusted breakdowns of how likely it is to get rare items?
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Valve hasn’t been very transparent with exact numbers, but some community sites track estimated odds based on large-scale openings.
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Yeah, drop rates are one of the biggest mysteries in CS2, and it’s easy to fall into the “just one more case” trap. If you’re after trustworthy data, there you’ll find articles and guides that break down estimated odds and explain how different case series work. While Valve doesn’t officially publish exact rates, the numbers floating around (like 0.26% for a knife) come from thousands of user openings. I’ve personally tracked my own results and they match pretty closely with these estimates. If you’re going to open cases, do it for fun—not as a moneymaking strategy. If profit is the goal, trading or buying skins directly is usually more efficient.
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